For long Rahul Gandhi has been trying to create a name for himself and trying to be under his skin in the mad bad world of Indian politics. People have mixed opinions about him. Some follow him (though a paltry crowd), some laugh at him, some feel sorry for him and some give him an outright dismissal.
It is understandable that when you belong to the famed Gandhi clan, it is not always easy to live up to the political acumen what people assume for you to have. So his attempts have been questioned by his own party at times and Indian National Congress party members had to offer him an extra rope to be the leader they wish to see him to be.
He is a Gen X guy and to be fair to him, he hasn’t been raised to grow up with masses and really understand the challenges of the common man. Even if he is trying his earnest, mostly it comes out looking like a photo op in the media. So if I was in his shoes I would feel frustrated and bottled with agony.
Just to set the facts clear I am not his fan neither I feel sad or bad when he is flagged for his sometimes careless, otherwise naïve media handling being the top politician of a famed political party that has a rich heritage of having some of the stalwarts of Indian polity over the generations. But I do feel this is the time when Rahul must be thanking the stars that someone has come and changed the playing field for him.
After the debacle of 2014 General elections when INC was reduced to 44 seats in the parliament and Rahul Gandhi’s technique of employing the IT and computerized analysis of the vote banks to assist in planning for the poll strategy was mocked by his own old party members who were skeptical of the approach from the start I think his ways may find a new lease of life.
Why this is the right time?
INC needed a reboot, the blessing in disguise for Rahul is that with a shock loss of the old guard gives him a chance to really bring that change along.
For good 2 decades the political narrative of India has been driven by religion and caste politics, and for not a natural politician like Rahul it could be daunting to understand the nuances of the game and play it well. But being a Gen X product, he does understand Globalization and modern thought process of the youth (I hope he does).
Which economy opening up in 1991 when he was just 17, he must have seen the change and India’s journey towards self-sufficiency closely. Modi’s campaign on growth and inclusion for masses in the Indian success story in the General elections of 2014, must give him hope that the narrative is changing.
Opportunities present
With so much happening in Modi government’s first 2.5 years in power, there are numerous opportunities that Rahul can pick to benefit from. Demonetization being the biggest topic politically one can leverage.
As one blames the UPA’s 2 terms for stagnation and policy logjam, one would complain Modi’s government to be far too disruptive. As much it upsets the existing trader and business community for changing goal post which they were not accustomed to, it opens many doors for the new entrepreneurs, who were seeing international markets evolve and feeling frustrated for similar chances not opening up in India.
Though it paints a great new landscape for Indian economy, it also puts Modi’s legacy at risk. Risk of losing the elections of 2019, as now it will be seen if Modi can wing back the business community to his fold in last 2 years of his term to get the political stability and the right narrative to win the next term.
This leaves a lot of gaps and opportunities for Congress or any other political party to play with. If business community feels that Modi’s plans are far too dangerous for them they would like to see an alternative either within BJP or outside. Within BJP as of today no one would want to be seen as an alternative for Modi so the alternative should come from outside. Rahul can pitch for that post.
Why Rahul and not anyone else?
Sad as it may sound, within congress there is no other candidate than Rahul. As far as Sonia is alive there won’t be any challenge to Rahul’s seat. Sadly, the political party that played a major role in negotiating for Indian independence and being a democracy is the least democratic party to be in. (AAP comes close second.)
There are good young leaders present in Congress, such as JR Scindhia, Sachin Pilot and a few more coming from the ranks of NSUI and National Youth Congress, but it still feels Rahul would be enjoying the dynastic clout for some time.
Age is at Rahul’s side. Modi being 70 may push along for another term but I don’t see him going beyond 2024. That will peg Rahul at the age of 50 the ideal and balanced candidate (only as far as age goes). Now if Rahul plays his cards well, he can use these 7 years to play to the right game of growth and exploring next growth frontiers for India.
Why Congress and not any other party?
Congress though reduced to a paltry sum in Lok sabha, still has an upper hand in Rajya sabha. At Counselor and state level they still have numbers to fancy a hope to do reasonably well in 2019 and come back to respectable numbers from their current 44. I feel 44 was the worst they could go down to, but I could be wrong depending upon what political blunders they commit in the run up to 2019 general elections. 2 years could be a very long time to commit mistakes and come back from them.
AAP is still very much a new party and still catching up on the regional game. I see a lot of high potential people in the ranks but no one likes to take the center stage in AAP, so far it is only the Arvind Kejriwal show and response in Punjab will define AAPs future course of growth. It could end up being an NCP clone in north if Arvind doesn’t democratize the party soon and let some more fresh, growth driven and hungry faces come to the scene.
Congress has been the only national, party that has played the right tunes to woo these regional parties and create an alliance to beat BJP to the polls. I know it is not the best option but could be the only alternative and this could be the future ticket for Shahzada to be a King in real.
Thoughts Unplugged !!! 